I tweeted this yesterday and I think it deserves an actual blog post to bring a little bit of reality into the picture after seeing all the “Magpie Tweets” on this topic yesterday.  Have we all forgotten about the roll out of Healthcare.Gov?  Have we all forgotten that there’s still work in progress with the website in connecting health insurance data that is not finished yet?  I ask these questions as they are relevant to making changes to the Affordable Care Act, or interpreting legal verbiage.  For some strange reason we seem to have gone backwards with our perceptions here and are back living the “Sebelius Syndrome” of whacked out perceptions again. 

I began calling the “whacked out” perceptions “The Sebelius Syndrome” a while back and she got the name as her public comments were so just off the wall and folks in tech just shook their heads in the past at what was said.  (By the way thanks to all the investors that read here that enjoy that name as I do like your comments on it:)  Again Sebelius just got the name but there’s many more suffering from the Syndrome, and all you had to do was read all the press yesterday about “there’s no fix as a back up for the insurance policies if the Supreme Court rules against them”.  Good grief, I never saw such rhetoric in my life on this topic. 

Of course there’s no back up as you need to write code based on “verbiage” that is determine as legal from the Supreme Court.  Actually a while back I did blog that too asking if the Court realized how much “code power” their verbiage has the potential to create and asked if they realized it themselves?  I’m trying to stay neutral here with opinions and just looking at the “real world” with what comes out of virtual values that will have “real” impact on consumers, ok?   I guess at this point I’m asking “how far off do you want to go with whacked out perceptions”?

Supreme Court to Hear Challenge to Obamacare Subsidies- They Hold the Code In Their Hands That Controls the All the Machines Running the Affordable Care Act..

Actually, even before I wrote that post I addressed the fact that members of Congress seem to also be oblivious to this fact as well with saying “the machines run the Affordable Care Act” and they do.  Again, let’s revisit Healthcare.Gov and notice that there’s still work in progress there and remember how bad the code was when it rolled out…need anymore proof…we need code here to change or fix things?  Geez…

The Affordable Care Act Is Run By the Machines–So Now What Do Human Lawmakers Think They Are Going To Do About It?

Seriously, can’t we get out of this make believe “virtual world value” here and come back to the real world?  This is a big part of our problem today as a nation, people that can’t tell the difference between virtual and the real world values.   In many ways, it seems HHS/CMS didn’t see enough at the VA with their Stat Rat Fever issues and are still going right down the same path as well.  We have a lot of broken models and software out there as it comes down to this “People don’t work that way”..and I don’t care how hard you try to market things today, if we don’t’ work that way, our behaviors will not change or adapt to the “proof of concept” model that is touted.  Sometimes we hit the jackpot and get it right all the way around and those are joyous moments for sure. 

VA Crisis Just The Tip of the Iceberg As US Needs a Full On Healthcare Culture Change Everywhere To Get Back In Touch With the Real World of Patients…

Actually I borrowed “People don’t work that way” from Emanuel Derman, world famous quant who’s written books on modeling.  He spoke those words during an interview in a documentary on the Quants of Wall Street and just scroll down to the bottom of this page and watch video #2 if you want to read up and get introduced to the world of Killer Algorithms out there.  Mr. Derman gets it and I agree, why we have all these broken models and people that can’t work with them…look at how Bloomberg got fooled with Big Gulp too…everyone can get fooled. 

“People Don’t Work That Way” A World of Broken Software Models That Don’t Align To the Human Side,Too Much Push At Times With Only A Proof of Concept That Fails in the Real World..

So yes a ruling from the Supreme Court without some code infrastructure will place those affected consumers into “algorithm hell”..period.  There’s no algorithm fairies out there to wave a magic wand to make the IT infrastructure work overnight?  Did you all once again forget the roll out of Healthcare.Gov?  Wake up folks, still need code and that has not changed.  We had the question too about the impact on such a decision on insurers…well same thing there with writing new code and using new math models to design policies.  If you look at the classifieds today you can see the armies of Quants that insurers have hired to model policies. 

Actuaries of course are still very much involved in the models, but by adding Quant models to the process insurers get the forecast of the “long” of the actuary and the “short” of the Quants to also bring in analytics on the impact of policies on stock price.  Yup, get in to it as that’s the real story here and the math and code that makes all of it work for them.  Insurer models run a lot of models that parallel those of the banks, traders, hedge funds, etc. and Quants move from one to another of those verticals to do their work.  Read the post below for a discussion on the correlation of how the models areimage similar and how we can’t run through markets as humans like data does with stock exchanges.  They do try to use some of those financial elements but we hit the wall when we can’t change doctors, plans, and everything else they put in the model in a time frame that suits profits for share holders. 

Data Scientists/Quants in the Health Insurance Business–Modeling Beyond the Speed and Capabilities of Humans To Keep Up With The Affordable Care Act–Turning Into A World of Killer Algorithms That We All Hate..

So again, can we step into the “real” world here and stop projecting a world of algorithm fairies that will step in and take care of the Supreme Court ruling should it go south?  This is is getting old, ok?  Let’s look at the “real” impact here and stop thinking that the math models and computer code are some kind of magical force out there, as it takes humans and time to create such infrastructure. 

Can we please stop talking like morons when it comes to the Affordable Care Act and look at the real world here on what needs to be done to change, amend, repeal or whatever your heart desires?   Let’s put an end to the “Sebelius Syndrome” of whacked out perceptions once and for all and let’s get out of the virtual values that being confused with the real world.  We need both and we need balance.  I too even get tired of seeing the White House putting out emails using numbers and stats that nobody can predict, it ends up shooting them in the foot instead of being a campaign for promoting laws and issues.  This crap is everywhere and we need to take on reality here and stop writing articles that make us look like morons sometimes. 

Want to change or rule on the Affordable Care Act-where’s your code?  BD


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