Revenues were up but profits were down.  More people have high deductible insurance plans and thus this model is continuing to break as payers are transferring risk to patients and providers.  The problem here is that transferring risk in software analytics may look good but we are back to how this doesn’t work in the real world as patients and payers don’t have the money, as we have already algorithmically risked down to the penny so where’s the next math model going to go search?  What’s left?  Again what looks good in the software world doesn’t play out the same in the real world, especially in healthcare, the people business.  In short, the models lied as they were constructed to generate profits and at some point in time when the array of data used runs out of cash, you can’t model it any more as it bottoms out.  I think this is what we are now seeing. 

Not ObamaCare That is Failing, It’s the Models and Subsequent Algorithms that Execute Within IT Infrastructures Intersecting, Changing And Conflicting– The Affordable “Complexities” Act…

Furthermore this is shown with others not being able to work with the business models as shown even with Medicare and CMS being frustrated.  We have had a few years of all of this in the news and now the reality is starting to hit.  Insurers have worked models to death and we get duped on some of this and believe all the numbers and reports shown to us and when it bottoms out, well time to look at models generated for profit without looking and coordinating with “patient care” models on the other side.  Government is pretty stuck as well as talent lacks on that side to first maybe admit this is an issue and secondly they didn’t hire the right talent as we stick to the OMG news and emotional turmoil, just read the news. We have a Consumer Financial Protection Agency that’s been rendered pretty useless as well with the wrong man in the wrong job, he’s a lawyer and is also easily duped as he’s sucked in as well and offers little knowledge and challenge when it comes to business models and the current course of action is reactionary rather than understanding models and being pro-active.

Richard Cordray, Fail With Understanding Flawed Models and Algorithms -Big Case of“Algo Duping”With Big Data-Save Time, Hire Quants Who Know How Consumer Financial Models Are Built and Function…Geez

This is a good article too about duping and see if you are in fact driving yourself off the cliff and see examples of companies driving themselves off as well. 

Big Data Revolution-Dangers of Using It To Drive Ourselves Off a Cliff -Debunking Myths of Algorithms Replacing Humans In Decision Making Processes in the Healthcare Business (Video)

Sure the next quarter may bring in some new numbers but there’s a certain amount of “fixed” expenses that hospitals can’t adjust and now the fiction of some of the analytics used is starting to show.  Scroll down and watch the videos in the footer of this blog for some really good educational videos that help explain the roots of all of this and how it got started.  It’s kind of like the same models that lead to the stock market crash.  If you’re an algorithm, life is looking pretty good, but can’t say the same for the human side”.

Right now we have BigData being the so called salvation and it’s not going to be the answer when the dollars bottom out unless we figure out how to use a software program like bitcoin to generate another fantasy money system.  Bitcoin is ok for what it is but we still need to look at hard dollars and it’s not going to save us from what has been created and half of the analytics being created today will be a waste of time as we tend to keep following the same circle here and look at numbers with not enough regard t how it plays out in the real world

There’s yet another big issue brewing too with our data and that is due to the fact that it relies to heavily on selling consumer data and that too will break in time as the date becomes more flawed, we have more exposure to breaches as more of our data is stored in more places where we don’t have a clue on the security.  An example below talks about this and there are tons of examples out there but again the data selling epidemic model contributes in a large way too.  Companies making consumer devices are not showing huge profits from selling the devices, they make big profits selling the data and the devices while they may help consumers with care, they really end up being a device that makes money by selling data, not as a device itself sold and being able to stand on it’s own to generate revenue, so big portions of this industry have flawed model as well as it feeds the frenzy. 

Jawbone Buys BodyMedia. Launches New “Up App” Platform–Partnerships Allow for More of Your Data and Profiles To Be Sold As Data Selling Epidemic Continues to Grow

I think the picture is going to get a lot uglier as time moves on and the algorithms run and right now some are out of control and the translation for some of it is something like this:  Unintended consequences are the results with code that runs, collides and moves money as each profit center executes what they need with little regard or notice to how it reacts with other data. 

There’s a lot of neat and cool things going on in science right now too and that has an impact as well and items such as telemedicine will generate savings but I do have to laugh at the numbers that are thrown out there as we really don’t know how much and all of those reports are just guesses as you have to wait until that algorithm comes running out of left field and changes the game, what we live with every day.  Sure trending offers good insight and has value for sure but what they do with the data and how it gets translated is where the murky water starts. 

Check out the Algo Duping/Killer Algorithm  page if you want to see some examples on how we all get duped and plan on some time to watch the videos and you will get the idea of the processes as it’s a hard thing for consumers and others to get your head around as it’s all intangible analytics that affect what we can and can’t do in the tangible world.  Again the formulas and math can and do clash with the real world so maybe time to give this a little more thought in business?  It sounds good to me but I’m only one person and it takes maturity and a sense of realism instead of the rush for profit to make it work.  You can’t take conflicting models and push them together and think you will have success as it’s a battle of the profit algorithms right now.  Hospitals are tangibles and provide “human” services and there’s no way they can compete with the sometimes fantasy projections of other entities.  As I said a while back banks and insurance companies are really not much more than software companies that control a lot of money and move it for profit.  As long as they are in control and write the code for profit with fantasy numbers we are pretty much stuck as it is modeled for inequality and dead patients can’t be re-admitted.  

Below is my take on the Baucus “train wreck”, it’s a technology problem.  BD

Baucus “Train Wreck” Is a Technology Issue, In Other Words We Have a “Model Train” Problem Embedded With Code and Algorithms Colliding For Profit Versus Functionality And Standards

DALLAS • Tenet Healthcare Corp. said Tuesday that it lost $88 million in the first quarter, hurt by hefty charges and a drop in inpatient admissions.

The earnings beat Wall Street predictions, while revenue fell slightly short.

The Dallas-based hospital operator’s loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to 85 cents per share and contrasted with net income of $58 million, or 53 cents per share, in the same quarter of 2012.

Excluding impairments, restructuring charges, acquisition-related costs and a debt-related loss, the company said it posted adjusted earnings from continuing operations of 33 cents per share.


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